Penn State Thoughts

Well that was about what we all expected, no? Actually, I thought that Syracuse was going to lose by 62 so I guess I should be happy by the result. But like any other longtime Cuse fan, I’m not.

This is how most Syracuse fans are feeling.

I grew into my Syracuse fandom after the Syracuse-Penn State rivalry ended. The only thing I knew about it was what I had heard from others who were around during the rivalry- they used to be our biggest rivals, Joe Pa is a jerk, and the rivalry ended when PSU asked for more home games. My father has a video yearbook of the 1987 team, and my brother and I wore that thing out we watched it so much. One of the best highlights was the 48-21 Syracuse win that broke PSU’s 16 game winning streak. I was three when that game took place, but I watched that thing so many damn times I felt like I was at the game.

When I heard Syracuse was going to be playing Penn State again I was excited (I don’t remember when they announced it, but I’m sure it was at the end of Coach P/beginning of G-Rob. Anyone know exactly?) I felt that we might be ready in time to get revenge on Joe Pa for trying to squeeze us all those years ago. At the very least we could possibly reignite one of the dormant Eastern football rivalries.

But as we all know things have not turned around at SU. The team is still struggling and there is no hope for much improvement this year. Penn State has had some down moments in the recent past, but are a top 20 team this year with a chance at winning the Big Ten.

As painful as this weekend was for us SU fans, I imagine it was even worse for the administration. A football movie gets made about one of our most storied football players and the program is in the dumps. With alumni and Hollywood in town for the premier of “The Express”, Syracuse got run over by their former rivals. They were outmatched and outplayed for 60 minutes. What should have been one of the most memorable weekends in Syracuse football history turned into another route that has become the norm under Greg Robinson.

This can’t sit well with Nancy Cantor and Daryl Gross. The heat is going to turn up very soon (as if Robinson wasn’t already on a “hot” seat) and it will be interesting to see how this situation is handled. All I know is that it is embarrassing to be a Syracuse fan right now. Unless the team goes on a miraculous run -including avoiding an upset next week against Northeastern- it is likely that there is only one solution.

And then we have to somehow put our faith back in Daryl Gross’s hands.

I’ll be back later this week with some video analysis of this game and a preview of Northeastern. Try to enjoy some NFL football the next couple days to take your minds off of this situation.

Two Potential G-Rob Replacements Put On One Hell of a Show

Before Syracuse got on the Carrier Dome turf on Saturday, two of the up-and-coming coaches of the MAC (as well as two potential Orange hires), Al Golden and Turner Gill, did battle down the Thruway in Buffalo. Golden’s Temple Owls were bested by the Bulls, 30-28 on a last-second 35 yard prayer from quarterback Drew Willey.

These guys would look great in Orange...

For those that didn’t watch the game, it was very entertaining. I’ve heard a lot about both of these teams, but haven’t seen much of them until now (I caught a little bit of Temple’s game against UConn, but not enough to know what kind of team they really are). I was very impressed by both. Both teams feature impressive offenses. Temple runs a no-huddle spread (a la Northwestern), while Buffalo runs a pass heavy offense with a little shotgun, but also features a pretty good ground attack.

Both teams made stupid mistakes down the stretch- penalties on both sides, a missed field goal and a kickoff out of bounds by Temple to set up the winning score- that could possibly be attributed to bad coaching. But I think for the most part both of these coaches had their teams prepared and put them in a spot to win the game.

Gill and Golden have taken programs that were horrendous and given them a shot to succeed in the MAC. Gill has a great offensive mind, and as the head coach and offensive coordinator I think he could help improve the Syracuse offense. The only question is would he keep Mitch Browning around or just run things on his own. Gill is a Nebraska legend and interviewed for their open position last year before losing out to Bo Pelini. If given the Syracuse job it would appear that his “dream” job with the Cornhuskers is occupied for the next few years. He could build up his BCS resume by turning around the Orange.

Golden is a defensive coach who uses a 3-4 scheme that has been successful at Temple and previously when he was the defensive coordinator at Virginia. His spread attack seems promising as well, and could work well in the Big East.

Now obviously there is no current opening at Syracuse, but we all know (hope) what is coming. Either of these coaches would be good fits. They have ties to the Northeast and have had success so far in their current rebuilding projects. Hopefully they would jump at a chance to move up to the Big East and bring back some respect for the Syracuse program.

The Greg Robinson Era: A Statistical View

I think if I ever met Greg Robinson, I would react like he is in this photo.

This was something I was originally going to write as a season preview this year, but didn’t get around to it. Now that we are 2 loses into Year 4 of the Greg Robinson Era, I thought it would be a good idea to take a statistical view of Robinson’s tenure. Donnie Webb did this after the Northwestern loss as well, but now that we are two games in I thought it’d be a good idea to revisit the numbers.

Here is a look at some team stats from the past three seasons (2005-2007), as well as this year. Included for each is how the Orange ranked in the Big East and in all of Division One football. The last column is the difference between Syracuse’s actual total in a category, and that of the Big East leader of that same category (click on charts to enlarge).

2008:

2007:

2006:

2005:

So far this year the rushing offense has been a huge improvement (thank you Mitch Browning), but the defense has been more of the same. For a defensive expert as Robinson supposedly was when he came here, his defenses have been horrid.

When he was hired in 2005, fans, students, and the media thought he would bring an end to the mediocrity that had become the status quo under Paul Pasqualoni (many were calling for Pasqualoni’s head over a year before he was eventually axed). Instead, the Orange have fallen further into the abyss during Robinson’s tenure.

A change had to be made in 2005. The program had stalled under Coach P, but I guess we didn’t know how bad things really could get. While these numbers shed some light onto just how awful Robinson has been here, only one set of numbers matter: 7-30. Only winning 7 games in a little over 3 seasons is unacceptable. And it probably won’t get any better until Robinson is gone.

Four Downs: Penn State

Sorry for no updates this week. There were some technical issues that prevented me from doing any video analysis for the Akron game. Probably for the best because that game was just horrendous. Anyways, moving on to this weekends loss to Penn State. Here are four big questions heading into Saturday’s showdown:

1. How badly are the Orange going to lose?

One of my friends at work is a Penn State grad. Last Saturday he asked me for my honest opinion on the outcome of the game. I told him that PSU would win by 62 points. I have yet to change my answer to that question whenever anyone else has asked me for my thoughts on this weekends game. Will it be that bad? Probably not. But would I be suprised if the final was 72-10 Penn State? Not really.

Say what you will about Joe Pa, but he has kept the talent level at Penn State since these two “rivals” ended their relationship. Syracuse, obviously, has not. It will be very apparent on Saturday.

So how have the Orange performed against ranked opponents under Greg Robinson? Well, the results shouldn’t be surprising. A combined 1-11. The lone victory was the victory over Louisville last year, who was ranked at the time, but ended up having a horrible year.

2007: 1-3 (win versus Louisville; Losses to UConn, Cincinnati and West Virginia)

2006: wins: 0-4 (Losses to Iowa, West Virginia, Louisville, and Rutgers. The Iowa loss was especially painful, as the offense had about 7324 chances to score a touchdown from the one yardline to win.)

2005: 0-4 ( Losses to Virginia, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Louisville)

This is the first game against a ranked opponent this season, and the results should be more of the same.

2. Will the defense give up less than 478 yards?

That is the low mark they’ve given up so far this year. I think the answer to this question is no. The defense has looked awful for two weeks and I don’t see it getting better in the near future. Certainly not this week.

Penn State has put up 111 points in wins over Coastal Carolina and Oregon State. Tailback Evan Royster already has 6 touchdowns on the year. I bet he gets at least 3 this week.

3. Will there be any bright spots in this game?

Other than the fact that Greg Robinson could get canned if the Orange lose by 100? Well, if I had to pick one it would be the play of Curtis Brinkley and Delone Carter. Both looked great last week and Syracuse will need them to play well to take some pressure off of Cameron Dantley.

4. How long does Greg Robinson have left?

Personally I think he will last through the season, but the talk has heated up a lot after last week’s loss. Syracuse.com says it is just a matter of when, not if Greggers is fired. Syracuse Chancellor Nancy Cantor says the team is performing below expectations.

There have been pleanty of coaches fired during a season (courtesy of Donnie Webb), but I think Cantor and Daryl Gross would wait until later in the year, if not until the end. I don’t think Gross wants to admit how bad of mistake hiring Robinson was, as well as bringing back a lame duck coach who realistically had no shot at winning enough games this year to save his job.

If they do fire Robinson they would hopefully give Mitch Browning a chance to guide the team for the rest of the season. If Mitch can lead the team to some victories, or at least have them playing a little bit better, maybe he becomes a viable candidate to become more than an interim coach. Or maybe the next coach will realize that having some semblance of continuity is good and will keep Browning on, as long as he is a fit to the offensive scheme they want to run.

Irregardless of what happens this weekend, it has become obvious that Robinson is gone. I just hope that we don’t get beaten too bad this weekend. But I’m still not backing down from my 62 point prediction.

Four Downs: Akron Zips

Syracuse didn’t start the season the way anyone- coaches, players, fans- wanted them to. Being embarrassed 30-10 against Northwestern put the Orange in a hole to start the year. Now they are faced with a must win game against Akron. Here is this week’s Four Downs for the hope opener:

1. Which Andrew Robinson will show up?

One of the biggest disappointments in the season opening loss was the play of Orange QB Andrew Robinson. Robinson came into this season after putting up good numbers last season. Missing his top two targets from last year was a known problem heading into the season, and last week it appeared that Robinson hasn’t meshed yet with the new receivers.

Robinson wasn’t the only reasons that the passing offense struggled, as Dave Rahme of syracuse.com points out. The lack of success on first downs is definitely a problem, one the Orange hope to address against the weak Zips run defense. The offensive line also has do do a better job in pass protection, something that it has struggled with for years.

Even with those other problems, Robinson was all over the map last week, sometimes overthrowing the ball, other times throwing it two yards short of his wideouts. His accuracy must improve in order for the offense to have success. This team will not be able to compete without solid play from the QB position (that might be the most obvious statement ever), and if Robinson looks as bad this week against Akron the coaches might have to think about bringing in Cam Dantley.

2. Which running back(s) will lead the way this week?

Greg Robinson still hasn’t announced a decision on who will start at tailback this week. All three running backs had their moments last week and will be needed this week. Akron struggles against the run, as evidence of the 404 yards Wisconsin ran for last week. Curtis Brinkley, Doug Houge and Delone Carter should all get plenty of chances to show what they can do on Saturday. If Robinson struggles passing again this week, Mitch Browning will lean heavily on his runners. It will be interesting to see how the coaches will split up the carries based on last weeks game as well as practices this week. The Orange will most likely be running the ball more this week, assuming they aren’t playing from behind all afternoon.

A rare sight during the Northwestern game: an SU defender making a tackle.

3. Can anyone on the Syracuse defense make a tackle?

Last week’s biggest defensive issue was the missed tackles, something I touched on earlier in the week. I counted 13 tackles that led to 97 yards of offense for Northwestern. And believe me when I say that I was generous in only crediting them with 13 misses. I excluded all the times someone was in position to make the tackle but wasn’t able to catch up to the ball carrier. The defense needs to improve quickly in this area or Akron will be getting free chunks of yards all over the place.

4. How many fans will be dressed as empty aluminum benches in the Dome?

The Carrier Dome used to be one of the best home field advantages in college football. While the Teflon bubble kept the cold and the snow of Central New York out, it kept the screaming, high-decibel noise of the raucous Orange faithful in. I can’t remember how many times in the 90’s I left the Dome with my voice hoarse and my ears ringing. It used to be you had no room in your seat because your section, even in the 300 level behind the goal posts, was so packed.

Fast forward to today and you now have enough room to lay down on those familiar silver benches when the on field results make you feel dizzy. You can also win free bread if you can be the closest guess to the announced attendance. Syracuse, like almost every other college athletic program or professional sports franchise, announces an attendance much greater than the actual number of fans. In fact I used to work for a minor league sports franchise, and one of the funniest (saddest?) things was seeing what we actually announce for attendance every game. Generally it would range from 500-3,000 more fans than what showed up. Obviously teams do this so that people think they’re doing better at the gate than they really are (plus in college you don’t want prospective recruits to think they’re going to be playing in front of the band, 200 students and 30 people with nothing better to do that day).

I won’t be in attendance as I no longer live in state, but I know there are plenty of locals won’t go to the Dome with the team’s recent run of ineptitude. This will be this season’s first statement of how low SU football has sunk in the minds of their fan base. Maybe with a strong performance some fans will start returning to the Dome.

Saturday Big East Preview

Here are some thoughts and predictions for this weeks Big East slate:

UConn at Temple

UConn faces a Temple team that is led by one of the coaches who is consistently mentioned to be in Syracuse’s future. Al Golden is a very good coach and Temple is on the verge of becoming an actual football program. I think Temple has a chance this week and will keep it close, but UConn is just too strong to lose this one.

UConn 31 – Temple 20

Tennesse Tech at Louisville

Louisville is hoping to bounce back from a horrendous effort last week against Kentucky by destroying Tennessee Tech. Tech is led by QB Lee Sweeney,  a Louisville transfer who has started for three years since leaving the Cardinals. If Louisville has any trouble this week I’d be surprised, but then again I didn’t think Steve Kragthorpe would have this program in such disarray this early in his tenure. Hunter Cantwell needs to get it going before facing Kansas State in two weeks then UConn in Louisville’s Big East opener.

Louisville 35 – Tennessee Tech 17

Cincinnati at Oklahoma

Cincinnati heads west to face the fourth ranked Oklahoma Sooners and their Heisman candidate QB, Sam Bradford. While some are predicting an upset, this Oklahoma team is too deep to suffer a let down against the Bearcats. Bradford is legit and he’ll lead the Sooners to victory.

Oklahoma 40- Cincinnati 20

West Virginia at East Carolina

Another possible SU coach takes on West Virginia, as Skip Holtz’s Pirates look for their second upset in two weeks. After shocking Virginia Tech last week ECU wants to knock of the top team in the Big East. West Virginia is a different beast than Virgina Tech, however, and Pat White and Noel Devine should be able to sufficiently move the ball on the ground. Skip will however get a chance to do some scouting for when he is on the Orange sideline next year against the Mountaineers.

West Virginia 35 – East Carolina 17

Buffalo at Pittsburgh

Yet another possible G-Rob replacement takes on a Big East team this week. Turner Gill has done wonders at Buffalo and has them on the verge of moving to the top of the MAC. The Bulls destroyed UTEP last week with a balanced attack. QB Drew WIlly has developed quickly under Gill’s tutelage and threw 4 TDs last week. Running backs James Starks and Brandon Thermilus both went over 100 yards as well. While Pitt comes off their disapointing loss to Bowling Green, they now have to deal with another pesky MAC opponent. I think Dave Wannstedt is feeling the pressure and will have his team more prepared this week, but I like the Bulls for the upset to make Pitt 0-2.

Buffalo 27 – Pittsburgh 21

South Florida at UCF

South Florida looks to win their 5th straight over their in-state rival in this one. Matt Grothe is a solid QB and should be able to lead the Bulls to a W in this one. UCF struggled against South Carolina State last week, only winning 17-0. Their offense misses last season’s rushing leader Kevin Smith and it will show in this one.

South Florida 35 – UCF 10

Northwestern Recap

Well so much for starting the season on a good note. There wasn’t much that Syracuse did well during the 30-10 loss on Saturday in Evanston. We will touch on some things in a bit.

Obviously a lot has been said about “The Punt”. No real need to go into it any further. That would probably just make me feel like Rob Gordon in “High Fidelity”. All I know is that I was shocked and at the same time not at all surprised. I’m sure I’m not alone there.

"What came first? The head coach or the misery?"...it was the head coach.

The coaching in general was bad on Saturday, and not just from Greg. While I think Mitch Browning is a terrific coach (the running game finally looked good, and the pass protection wasn’t as bad as it was last year), some of his play calls were just baffling.

On the Robinson safety, the offense came out at their own five yardline in an I-formation, 2 TE set. It was 2nd and 8. Seems like a good time to use your running game, which had been great to this point, to give Andrew Robinson some extra room on a third down passing situation. But what makes no sense, is calling play action, and then sending only ONE player out on a route. Seriously, if you haven’t yet deleted the game from your DVR, go check it out. Both the tight ends, the fullback and the running back stay in to block. But the problem is three fold: 1. Andrew Robinson play fakes then does a 7 step drop, leaving him vulnerable to any defensive penetration, which happened; 2. Robinson is given only one option to throw the ball to; and 3. The entire O-Line sold the fake to the left, but Mike Owen who lined up as the TE on the right, went right. This left a huge gap between Owen and the right tackle. Guess where the pressure came from.

So while you can’t pin this entire play on Browning’s shoulders due to Owen’s poor execution, you can’t have a QB like Robinson 7-step dropping with only one WR to throw to from his own five yardline. You just can’t.

The defense also looked ill-prepared to handle the no huddle, quick pace of the Wildcats offense. Multiple times they were scrambling to get players in position, and on a few occasions they were not set when the ball was snapped.

The defensive personnel choices were also very poor. Syracuse played with a lot of 3 defensive lineman sets, not surprising considering the pass happy attack they were facing. But why on earth would you continuously put Nick Santiago at defensive end in those situations? He is a tackle and it showed on the multiple occasions when Sutton absolutely destroyed him. I’m not saying that it would have been a different result if a speedier d-end was on the field during those situations, but Santiago is not quick enough to play there. He just isn’t.

Also of note, Mike Mele looked absolutely atrocious out there. He was consistentlya step behind (like Santiago) and did a horrible job in pass coverage. Hopefully this is just a product of the offense he was facing, and against a more traditional team he will play better, but he had a very rough afternoon.

After doing some video analysis of the entire game I noticed a few things listed below. I only collected data for the offensive and defensive plays, so my apologies for anyone who wanted a breakdown of wedge busting on kickoffs.